The first independent polling of the race for Mayor of Indianapolis has been released. One candidate is ahead of the other by 11 points. There is a huge well of undecided voters, over 20 percent.
Maybe my intestinal sensation (read: gut feeling) is wrong, but here is how I sense matters. People generally do not like Mayor Ballard or the way in which the City of Indianapolis has been run under his watch. But there always are party faithful. There also are some who have liked what he has/has not done. Some people are wary of change, however. Ironically because, it would seem, the candidate of "change" for whom they voted last time around, Greg Ballard, did not usher in the type of change for which they hoped. Still, what is the saying? The devil one knows is better than...You get the idea. That explains the 44 percent.
There are party faithful on the Democratic side as well, of course. There are people who want change and perceive Melina Kennedy as the candidate for that change. That explains her 33 percent.
Then there are the people who are undecided. Some might wait until the last minute to decided, as they weigh the issues and the candidates' stands on those issues. That, perhaps, is one percent of the voters. Okay, I exaggerate. It's less than one percent, but I needed a whole number. There are others who will decide from the miasma rising from the candidates' barbs and last-minute mailings; from the negative TV commercials in which the opponent is shown in slow-mo and credited with planning nasty things for the City and all who reside therein; and, most importantly, the gossip and usual banter at work (for the lucky), school, over the proverbial fence with the neighbors, or the local pub. That undecided will go to the polls on Tuesday, November 8, ignore the annoying people handing out campaign crap no closer than 50 feet from the entrance chute to the voting place, grab a ballot, be somewhat swayed by the latest influence s/he felt about the matter, mentally toss a coin, andfill in the spot on the ballot.
People are pissed off generally, so more than likely the spot will be for the Democrat. There is no margin of error ascribed to this analysis. I can say so scientifically, since I was a Political Science major at DePauw. The election will be unnecessarily close.
One thing is certain: many campaign workers, on the morning of November 9---whether their candidate wins or loses---will be extremely hungover. That is the great equalizer of our democratic process.