We shall talk election predictions today.
The 2014 midterms only are three-and-a-half weeks away. Some have perceived, here in Indiana, a lack of enthusiasm about these “mid-terms.”
Indiana’s Congressional districts have been gerrymandered. Whether the creative carving of districts is by members of the Republican Party—as now in Indiana—or Democratic Party—as was the case in the past—gerrymandering, the drawing of district lines to favor one party, is wrong. The Republican gerrymandering we see today is a product of what GOP strategist and sometime-guitar player Lee Atwater called ... well, “Rat Fornicationg,” except he did not use the word “fornicating”; the root of that gerund was a more guttural synonym for fornicate.
Atwater advocated the Republican Party focus on State elections to obtain majorities to draw lines favorable to the Republican Party nationwide. RF is partly responsible for an Indiana Congressional delegation, for example, comprised 7-2 Republicans, when the popular vote in the last election in Congressional Districts statewide would have been closer to 5-4. Because the GOP drew lines to concentrate Democratic Party voters in the First Congressional District (da Region) and the Seventh Congressional District (largely Marion County), while those two districts will be “blue,” the rest of the districts were designed to be safely “red.”
This hardly seems to reflect what the voters want, but, when it comes to line-drawing and party politics, who cares a damn about what the voters want?
The only Indiana Congressional race that could be close—and was close two years ago—is the Second Congressional District, in which incumbent Jackie Walorski faces Democratic Party nominee Joe Bock, a professor at Notre Dame.
It is hard for me to “cheer” for Walorski. She is so far right-wing she teeters on the edge of the Flat Earth she probably believes is a map of the actual planet. She is anti-choice, pro-guns, and aims to continue the effort to hobble the Federal Government while simultaneously pointing at the Federal Government’s shortcomings as if to say See? Those people are incompetent!
I was surprised to read Joe Bock’s campaign website. He does not appear to be tacking as far to the right as possible to attempt to court voters who lean Walorski’s direction. Last week, I was in the northern part of the State and saw some TV ads for the campaigns. If there are any negative ads aired between the two camps or their PAC alter-egos, those ads were not aired when I watched TV.
To commission a poll is an expensive proposition. I have not seen any polls on this race. The absence of negative ads could mean Walorski feels safe. It also could mean Bock feels confident. Maybe each felt such tactics beneath her and him—but, no. Walorski went heavily against Joe Donnelly when she ran (and lost) to Donnelly in 2010 for that same District.
On November 5, it is possible we could wake up to an Indiana Congressional delegation split 6-3 for the GOP, one seat fewer than today. If so, it will be because Joe Bock beats Jackie Walorski.
Today “Civil Discourse Now” will stream live from Claude & Annie’s, on 141st Street just off State Road 37. Owner Bill Smythe—a fellow Cubs fan—likes to say his establishment is in the land of the frree, Hamilton County, where his patrons still can smoke. We shall have election predictions with guest panelist, and former Indiana Secretary of State, Charlie White.
Also a guest will be Kim Bacon, a candidate for Lawrence Township Small Claims Court Judge. We welcome Ms. Brown, as we do all candidates for elective public office, to The Show. If any candidates wish to appear, please contact me. Kimann Schultz will provide Fashions News and Muse. Tyler Rayl will comment on sports. We are on from 11 am to 1 pm.